Illustration of Risks
This report includes an explanation of financial and non-financial risks that we deem to be most relevant to the achievement of the company’s objectives in 2023 and beyond. According to our risk assessment methodology, macroeconomic, socio-political, regulatory, and currency risks; risks related to the competitive and retail environment; risks related to tax and customs regulations; risks related to consumer demand and product offering; risks related to the coronavirus pandemic; personnel risks; risks related to media and stakeholder activities; and IT and cyber security risks are classified as material. The corporate risks overview table illustrates the assessment of all risks described below.
Risk categories |
|
Potential impact |
|
Change |
|
Likelihood |
|
Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macroeconomic, sociopolitical, regulatory, and currency risks |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
30% – 50% |
|
|
Risks related to the competitive and retail environment |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
30% – 50% |
|
↑ (< 15%) |
Risks related to tax and customs regulations |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
30% – 50% |
|
↑ (15% – 30%) |
Risks related to consumer demand and product offering |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
15% – 30% |
|
↓ (30% – 50%) |
Risks related to the coronavirus pandemic |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
15% – 30% |
|
↓ (30% – 50%) |
Personnel risks |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
15% – 30% |
|
|
Risks related to media and stakeholder activities |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
50% – 85% |
|
↑ (30% – 50%) |
IT and cyber security risks |
|
High |
|
|
|
15% – 30% |
|
|
Business partner risks |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
< 15% |
|
↓ (15% – 30%) |
Compliance risks |
|
Significant |
|
|
|
< 15% |
|
|
Hazard risks |
|
Significant |
|
↑ (Medium) |
|
< 15% |
|
↓ (30% – 50%) |
Litigation risks |
|
High |
|
↓ (Significant) |
|
< 15% |
|
↓ (15% – 30%) |
Project risks |
|
High |
|
↑ (Medium) |
|
< 15% |
|
↓ (30% – 50%) |
Macroeconomic, sociopolitical, regulatory, and currency risks
Growth in the sporting goods industry is highly dependent on consumer spending and consumer confidence. Economic downturns, inflation, financial market turbulence, currency exchange rate fluctuations, and sociopolitical factors such as military conflicts (e.g., further expansion of the war in Ukraine), changes of government, civil unrest, pandemics, nationalization, expropriation, or nationalism, in particular in regions where adidas is strongly represented, could therefore negatively impact the company’s business activities and top- and bottom-line performance. Currency risks are a direct result of multi-currency cash flows within the company, in particular the mismatch of the currencies required for sourcing our products versus the denominations of our sales. Furthermore, translation impacts from the conversion of non-euro-denominated results into the company’s functional currency, the euro, might lead to a material negative impact on our company’s financial performance. In addition, substantial changes in the regulatory environment such as trade restrictions (e.g., concerning the US and China, or the EU and China), economic and political sanctions, regulations concerning product compliance, environmental, and climate protection regulations could lead to potential sales shortfalls or cost increases. see Note 29
To mitigate these macroeconomic, sociopolitical, and regulatory risks, adidas strives to balance sales across key regions and also between developed and emerging markets. We continuously monitor the macroeconomic, political, and regulatory landscape in all our key markets to anticipate potential problem areas, so that we can quickly adjust our business activities accordingly upon any change in conditions. Potential adjustments may be a reallocation of manufacturing of our products to alternative countries, a reallocation of investments to alternative, more attractive markets, changes in product prices, closure of our own retail stores, more conservative product purchasing, tight working capital management, and an increased focus on cost control.
To mitigate the risk related to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, we utilize a centralized currency risk management system and hedge currency needs for projected sourcing requirements on a rolling basis up to 24 months in advance. In rare instances, hedges are contracted beyond the 24-months horizon. see treasury
By building on our leading position within the sporting goods industry and taking into account the interests of our stakeholders, we actively engage in supporting policymakers and regulators in their efforts to liberalize global trade and curtail trade barriers, and to proactively influence and adapt to significant changes in the regulatory environment.
Risks related to the competitive and retail environment
Changes in the competitive landscape and the retail environment could impact the company’s success. Strategic alliances among competitors or retailers, the increase in retailers’ own private-label businesses and intense competition for consumers, production capacity, and promotion partnerships between well-established industry peers and new market entrants pose a substantial risk to adidas. This could lead to harmful competitive behavior, such as sustained periods of discounting in the marketplace or intense bidding for promotion partnerships. Failure to recognize and respond to consolidation in the retail industry could lead to increased dependency on particular retail partners, reduced bargaining power, and, consequently, considerable margin erosion. Sustained pricing pressure in key markets, amplified by current elevated inventory levels (in particular in the US and China), could threaten the company’s financial performance and the competitiveness of our brands. Aggressive competitive practices could also drive increases in marketing costs and market share losses, thus hurting the company’s profitability and market position. The inability to adjust our distribution strategy in a timely manner to a changing retail industry, which is experiencing continuous substitution of physical retail stores by digital commerce platforms as well as increasing connectivity between physical and digital retail, could result in sales and profit shortfalls. A decline in the attractiveness of particular shopping locations such as shopping malls could lead to sales shortfalls in our customers’ and our own stores, higher inventory in the marketplace, increased clearance activity, and margin pressure.
To mitigate these risks, we continuously monitor and analyze information on our competitors and markets in order to be able to anticipate unfavorable changes in the competitive environment rather than merely reacting to such changes. This enables us to proactively adjust our marketing and sales activities (e.g., product launches or selective pricing adjustments) when needed. We also continuously and closely monitor numerous indicators (e.g., order placement, sell-through rates at the point of sale, average selling prices, discounts, store traffic) that help us identify changes in the retail environment and quickly take appropriate action such as closing or remodeling our own stores. We constantly adjust our segmentation strategies to ensure that the right product is sold at the right point of sale at an appropriate price. Continuous investment in research and development ensures that we remain innovative and distinct from competitors. We also pursue a strategy of entering into long-term agreements with key promotion partners. In addition, our product and communication initiatives are designed to increase brand desire, drive market share growth, and strengthen our brand’s market position.
Risks related to tax and customs regulations
Numerous laws and regulations regarding customs and taxes as well as changes in such laws and regulations affect the company’s business practices worldwide. Non-compliance with regulations concerning product imports (including calculation of customs values), intercompany transactions, or income taxes could lead to substantial financial penalties and additional costs as well as negative media coverage and therefore reputational damage, for example in case of understatements or underpayments of corporate income taxes or customs duties. Changes in regulations regarding customs and taxes may also have a substantial impact on the company’s sourcing costs or income taxes. Therefore, we also create provisions in accordance with the relevant accounting regulations to account for potential disputes with customs or tax authorities. Due to the current geopolitical situation, we assume in individual cases increasingly aggressive positions taken by tax and customs authorities in audits, which could increase the potential impact of such risks and the likelihood that they materialize. In 2021, the ‘OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting’ agreed on a two-pillar solution to address the tax challenges arising from the digitalization of the economy. Pillar 2, which includes the introduction of global minimum tax, could have a considerable impact on income tax expense from 2024 onwards.
We seek to manage tax and customs risks in a balanced way that bears an appropriate relationship to the operating structure, commercial and economic substance, and other business risks. To proactively manage such risks, we constantly seek expert advice from specialized independent law and tax advisory firms in areas such as process design, transaction advisory, compliance, and tax or customs audits. Processes are in place requiring that attention is regularly directed to potential areas of tax or customs risk (e.g., a quarterly tax risk questionnaire) and the corporate tax and customs teams are involved in critical business transactions. Compliance with global tax and customs policies and controls is monitored by the Corporate Tax and Customs teams, internal controls experts and the Internal Audit department. We closely monitor changes in legislation to properly adopt regulatory requirements regarding customs and taxes; apply any available and applicable guidance from tax authorities and organizations such as the OECD, the World Customs Organization and the World Trade Organization; and seek guidance from individual authorities, as appropriate, which may include requesting tax rulings from a tax authority. In addition, our internal legal, customs, and tax teams advise our operational management teams to ensure appropriate and compliant business practices. Our specialized staff receive adequate training for their role and non-tax, or non-customs staff are made aware of potential tax and customs matters relevant to their roles. Furthermore, we work closely with customs authorities and governments worldwide to make sure we adhere to customs and trade regulations at import and export to ensure the availability and obtain the required clearance of products to fulfill sales demand. See sustainability
Risks related to consumer demand and product offering
Our success largely depends on our ability to continuously create new, innovative, and sustainable products. Consumer demand changes can be sudden and unexpected, particularly when it comes to the more fashion-related part of our business. Therefore, we face a risk of short-term revenue loss in cases where we are unable to anticipate consumer demand or respond quickly to changes. In addition, creating and offering products that do not resonate with consumers and our retail partners is a critical risk to the success of our brands, especially considering our focus on key product franchises. This risk could be exacerbated if our marketing activities and brand campaigns fail to generate consumer excitement. Even more critical in the long term, however, are the risks of continuously overlooking new trends and failing to continuously introduce and successfully commercialize new product innovation.
To mitigate these risks, identifying and responding to shifts in consumer demand as early as possible is a key responsibility of our brand and sales organizations and, in particular, of the respective Risk Owners. Therefore, we utilize extensive primary and secondary research tools as outlined in our risk and opportunity identification process. By putting the consumer at the center of our decision-making, we intend to create higher brand advocacy and attract new consumers. We continuously expand our consumer analytics efforts to read and quickly react to changes in demand or trend shifts. In addition, direct touchpoints with consumers via our own digital channels, such as the adidas app, and direct communication with consumers on social media platforms strengthen our understanding of consumer preferences and behavior and, as a result, help us to reduce our vulnerability to changes in demand. Through continuous monitoring of sell-through data and disciplined product life-cycle management, in particular for our major product franchises, we are able to better detect demand patterns and prevent excess supply. By leveraging our promotion partnerships and by carefully orchestrating launch events across markets and channels, we intend to maintain brand desire and consumer demand at a constantly high level. Utilizing external insights and capabilities in product creation helps us strengthen our product offering and drive consumer demand, brand desire, market share, and profitability.
Risks related to the coronavirus pandemic
The negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic have eased in most countries during 2022. However, there could still be a substantial negative impact to the company’s success if high infection rates are causing a persistent workforce shortage due to increased sick leave, or, if new coronavirus variants would again require widespread lockdown and containment measures in our most important sourcing countries or key markets, such as China. Risks related to the coronavirus pandemic include but are not limited to:
- Traffic declines in our own and our retail partners’ stores or even store closures.
- Closures of distribution centers would negatively impact the company’s ability to fulfill orders by consumers or retail partners and lead to sales and profit shortfalls, order cancellations, or excess inventory.
- Supply chain disruptions, such as the closure of factories of our manufacturing partners or the closure of ports in critical sourcing countries, could cause production or delivery delays and negatively impact our ability to fulfill consumer demand.
- Wholesale customers may cancel purchase orders or return product to adidas, which could result in excess inventory and higher inventory allowances.
- Lower-than-expected sales and profits in our own retail stores may result in higher impairment charges or inventory allowances and negatively affect the company’s bottom line.
- Third-party business partners may partially or completely fail to meet their contractual financial obligations, which could result in higher loss allowances and increased write-offs for accounts receivable.
- Volatile global financial markets might negatively affect the company’s access to capital in the future.
To mitigate the effects of a potential aggravation of the coronavirus crisis, adidas could take numerous measures, for example by further shifting our focus to digital channels with prioritized supply chain management. With flexible shifts in our product purchasing in close alignment with our manufacturing partners, a disciplined sell-in, and the conscious use of our factory outlets, we could be able to reduce negative margin effects and manage our inventory. By securing alternative freight capacities and adjusting planning processes for early shipments, we could mitigate the effect of container scarcity and port congestions. Strict cash flow and cost management help us to ensure the financial stability of our company. Furthermore, adidas is continuously safeguarding the health of its employees and other stakeholders through strict measures.
Personnel risks
Achieving the company’s strategic and financial objectives is highly dependent on our employees and their talents. In this respect, strong leadership and a performance-enhancing culture are critical to the company’s success. Therefore, ineffective leadership as well as the failure to install and maintain a performance-oriented culture that fosters ‘Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion’ (‘DEI’) and strong employee engagement amongst our workforce could substantially impede our ability to achieve our goals. An ineffective, unbalanced, or insufficient allocation of resources to business activities as well as improper planning and untimely execution of reorganization and transformation initiatives may reduce employee engagement, cause business disruption and inefficiencies, and may negatively affect business performance. In addition, global competition for highly qualified personnel remains fierce. As a result, the loss of key personnel in strategic positions and the inability to identify, recruit, and retain highly qualified and skilled talent who best meet the specific needs of our company pose risks to our business performance.
We are taking various measures to ensure that we maintain a culture that fosters ‘DEI.’ Through several specialized programs, ‘DEI’ is embedded into our recruitment processes. Our ‘Global DEI Council’ drives the increase of representation, retention, and advancement of diverse talents within our global workforce. Furthermore, our workforce takes part in ‘DEI’ learning programs. To ensure effective leadership across the company we offer a portfolio of leadership development experiences designed for every level of management across all markets and functions. To optimize staffing levels and resource allocation (i.e., having the right people with the right skillsets in the right roles at the right time), we adjust resource allocation where required to reflect developments in business performance, the economic environment and our company’s strategic priorities. Organizational transformations and reorganizations are supported by change activations with our leadership teams and organizational design consultancy. We continuously invest in improving employer branding activities, and our global recruiting organization constantly enhances our internal and external recruiting services and capabilities. Our global succession management helps create internal talent pipelines for critical leadership positions and therefore reduces succession risk.
Risks related to media and stakeholder activities
Adverse or inaccurate media coverage on our products or business practices as well as negative social media discussion may significantly harm adidas’ reputation and brand image, lead to public misperception of the company’s business performance and eventually result in a sales slowdown. Similarly, certain activities on the part of key stakeholders (e.g., non-governmental organizations, governmental institutions) could cause reputational damage, distract top management, and disrupt business activities. Despite the termination of the adidas Yeezy partnership in 2022, due to its former size and relevance, related stakeholder reactions and negative media coverage could still be possible.
To mitigate these risks, we pursue proactive, open communication and engagement with key stakeholders (e.g., consumers, media, the financial community, non-governmental organizations, governmental institutions) on a continuous basis. In addition, we have established clear crisis communication processes to ensure a quick and effective response to adverse developments. We have also strengthened social media capabilities and created various digital newsrooms around the globe that enable continuous monitoring of social media content related to the company’s products and activities and allow early management of potentially damaging social media discussion. On a case-by-case basis, we seek external advice from experts in communication and stakeholder management.
IT and cyber security risks
Theft, leakage, corruption, or unavailability of critical information (e.g., consumer data, employee data, product data) and systems could lead to reputational damage, regulatory penalties, or the inability to perform key business processes. Key business processes, including product marketing, order management, warehouse management, invoice processing, customer support, and financial reporting, are all dependent on IT systems. Significant outages, application failures, or cyber security threats to our infrastructure, or that of our business partners, could therefore result in reputational damage, regulatory penalties, or cause considerable business disruption or impact to business-critical data.
To mitigate these risks, our IT organization proactively engages in system preventive maintenance, service continuity planning, adherence to IT policies and maintenance of a comprehensive information security program. Information security governance, data security, security architecture design, continuity management, and employee awareness programs help us to protect the company adequately. We have also secured limited insurance coverage for damage resulting from cyber security incidents.
Business partner risks
adidas interacts and enters into partnerships with various third parties, such as athletes, creative partners, innovation partners, retail partners, or suppliers of goods or services. As a result, the company is exposed to a multitude of business partner risks.
We work with strategic partners in various areas of our business (e.g., product creation, manufacturing, research, and development) or distributors in a few selected markets whose approach might differ from our own business practices and standards, which could also negatively impact the company’s business performance and reputation. Similarly, failure to maintain strong relationships with our partners could negatively impact the company’s sales and profitability. Risks may also arise from a dependency on particular partners. For example, the overdependency on a supplier or customer increases the company’s vulnerability to delivery and sales shortfalls, respectively, and could lead to significant margin pressure. Business partner default (including insolvency) or other disruptive events such as strikes may negatively affect the company’s business activities and result in additional costs and liabilities as well as lower sales for the company. Unethical business practices or improper behavior on the part of business partners could have a negative spillover effect on the company’s reputation, lead to higher costs or liabilities or even disrupt business activities.
To mitigate business partner risks, adidas has implemented various measures. For example, we generally include clauses in contractual agreements with partners that allow us to suspend or even terminate our partnership in case of improper or unethical conduct. In addition, we work with a broad portfolio of promotion partners to reduce the dependency on the success and popularity of a few individual partners. We utilize a broad distribution strategy, which includes further expansion of our direct-to-consumer business to reduce the risk of overreliance on key customers. Specifically, no single customer accounted for more than 5% of the company’s sales in 2022. To reduce risk in the supply chain, we work with suppliers who demonstrate reliability, quality, and innovation. Furthermore, in order to minimize any potential negative consequences such as a violation of our Workplace Standards by our suppliers, we enforce strict control and inspection procedures at our suppliers and also demand adherence to social and environmental standards throughout our supply chain. In addition, we have selectively bought insurance coverage for the risk of business interruptions caused by physical damage to suppliers’ premises. To reduce supplier dependency, the company follows a strategy of diversification. In this context, adidas works with a broad network of suppliers in different countries and, for the vast majority of its products, does not have a single-sourcing model.
Compliance risks
As a globally operating company, adidas is subject to various laws and regulations. Non-compliance with such laws and regulations could lead to penalties and fines and cause reputational damage. For example, non-compliance with laws and regulations concerning data protection and privacy, such as the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), may result in substantial fines. In addition, publication of failure to comply with data protection and privacy regulations could cause reputational damage and result in a loss of consumer trust in our brands. We also face the risk that members of top management as well as our employees breach rules and standards that guide appropriate and responsible business behavior. This includes the risks of fraud, financial misstatements or manipulation, anti-competitive business practices, bribery, corruption, discrimination, and harassment in the workplace.
Our Compliance Management System (CMS) helps us to prevent, detect, and adequately respond to these risks. Our Global Policy Manual provides a framework for basic work procedures and processes, and our Fair Play Code of Conduct stipulates that every employee and our business partners shall act ethically in compliance with the laws and regulations of the legal systems where they conduct company business. In addition, our Regional Compliance Managers and Local Compliance Officers guide and advise our operating managers regarding fraud and corruption topics. Furthermore, we utilize controls such as segregation of duties in IT systems and data analytics technology to prevent or detect fraudulent activities. We are also working with external partners and law firms to ensure we are informed about legal requirements across the globe, and we take appropriate action to ensure compliance. To mitigate the risk of non-compliance with laws and regulations concerning data protection and privacy, we developed a global privacy management framework that introduces the company’s privacy principles and provides guidance for the use and deletion of personal information. This framework applies to all adidas businesses worldwide and also sets our expectations of third-party business partners for managing personal information for or on behalf of adidas. Our Global Privacy Officer and the Global Privacy department drive the operational establishment of the framework and monitoring capabilities to track and report its implementation. During the implementation, they are continuously providing further implementation guidance and training.
Hazard risks
As climate change intensifies, the likelihood and intensity of natural disasters such as storms, floods, droughts, pandemics, or heat waves increases, and so does adidas’ potential risk. In addition, our business activities could be impacted by port congestions, strikes, riots, or terrorist attacks. All of the above could damage our offices, stores, or distribution centers or disrupt our operational processes leading to loss of sales, higher cost, and a decrease in profitability.
To manage and mitigate these risks, we continuously monitor potential threats and have implemented business continuity plans including but not limited to fallback solutions for transportation, dynamic capacity management of containers and carriers, and reallocation of production. We also maintain high safety standards in all our locations and have secured insurance coverage for property damage and business interruptions.
Litigation risks
adidas might be involved in legal disputes and proceedings in different jurisdictions. Legal action taken against adidas due to the company’s use of technologies or other intellectual property that are owned by a third party may result in the loss of rights to use those technologies or rights, imposed royalty payments, withdrawal of products from the market, legal costs, or reputational damage.
Our Legal Intellectual Property and Trademark team is actively defending adidas’ intellectual property and associated rights and regularly exchanging with internal business partners to ensure that designs and innovations are cleared for use and protected. Furthermore, we engage with qualified external consultants and lawyers in case legal actions are taken against the company.
Project risks
To effectively support further business growth and improve efficiency, adidas continuously invests in new projects such as the creation, implementation, expansion, harmonization, or modernization of IT systems, distribution centers, or office buildings. Ineffective project management could delay the execution of critical projects and lead to higher expenditures. Inadequate project planning and controlling as well as executional mistakes or ineffective change management could cause inefficiencies, delays, or business disruption, resulting in higher costs and sales shortfalls. Inappropriate project governance, prioritization, and oversight of the project portfolio may lead to suboptimal resource allocation and undesired project results.
We manage projects utilizing reviews by project teams as well as project steering committees to evaluate the progress, quality, and costs of those projects on a regular basis. This approach allows early detection of project risks and quick implementation of corrective action or timely cancelation of projects with a low chance of success. To ensure true end-to-end management of key projects we have established a network of program and project management departments across all main functions (i.e., Sales, Marketing, Operations, Finance, IT, and Human Resources). We also work with external partners for project management support in areas where we do not have the required expertise or experience in-house.